CRUCIAL GLOBAL WARMING FACT 8
(THE LAST ONE)
NEARLY 40% OF THE WORLD POPULATION LIVES IN “COASTAL COMMUNITIES”, WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST AREAS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE ABANDONED, AS SEA LEVELS RISE.
THAT’S ABOUT 3 BILLION PEOPLE, LIVING IN “COASTAL COMMUNITIES”
This last and final “Crucial Fact” relates to population densities, along coastlines. For numerous reasons, coastal areas are much more densely populated than “inland” regions. Five major reasons include: (i) direct access to fishing, and food from the ocean; (ii) rich soil for crops, deposited by river deltas over millions of years; (iii) cheap and easy ways to dispose of garbage, sewage, etc.; (iv) easy ways to bathe, which helps reduce insects and pathogens; and, (v) the climate tends to be more pleasant near a large body of water, in any temperate or tropical zone, and even in many cold but sub-arctic zones.
As a result, according to the 2017 UN Conference on Coastlines, about 40% of the entire world population (of humans) lives within about 30 miles (50 kilometers) of a coastline, even though that amount of area is only a small fraction of the earth’s total land surface.
More importantly, when it comes to assessing the threats posed by global warming and sea level rise, the UN Conference adopted the phrase “coastal communities” to help it focus on cities, villages, etc. that are close enough to a specific coastline to be heavily and directly affected by it; and, they determined that 37% of the entire world population lives in what the UN Conference called “coastal communities.”
Since 37% is almost exactly the fraction 3/8 (= 37.5%, to be precise), and since about 8 billion people live on this planet, today, 3 BILLION PEOPLE, AROUND THE WORLD, LIVE DIRECTLY IN “COASTAL COMMUNITIES”.
The people who wrote this have not found or seen a list of which major cities are classified as “coastal communities” as defined by the UN report, so we do not know whether cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, or Toronto (on the coasts of the Great Lakes), or cities such as Philadelphia, Houston, and New Orleans (all at low elevations, only a few miles away from salt water) are included. However, even a brief mental review can remind anyone that most of the largest and most populous cities in the US (including New York City, Boston, Baltimore, Miami, New Orleans, Los Angeles, the entire San Francisco bay area, and the entire Seattle area) are all directly on salt-water coasts, and in other countries, nearly all of the most populous cities (including Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney, Mumbai (India), Karachi (Pakistan), Lagos (Nigeria), Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Beunos Aires, and numerous other cities with more than a million people each) are all directly on salt-water coasts.
In addition, anyone trying to understand what sea level rise will actually do, to literally billions of people, should take a look at this satellite picture of the Nile River delta, in Egypt, and think about what it shows, and means:
The city of Cairo – with multiple millions of people – sits mainly on the bottom third of that green triangle. And, because of how river deltas are formed (i.e., by silt and sediment dropping out, once the speed of the current slows down, when a river reaches the flat plateau that borders the ocean), river deltas are always wide, and flat, with very low elevations.
So, HERE is the transition point, in this Fact #8, between hard facts, as set forth above, and predictions about what is going to happen, in the coming years. If anyone wants to argue that any prediction set forth below, on the remainder of this page, is illogical, merely speculative, and not strongly supported by both facts and reason, then they should explain why, and set forth their own predictions, to be judged – fairly and honestly – as the years go by, as people see what actually happens.
Since river deltas are wide, and flat, and have low elevations (that much is fact, arising from how river deltas are formed), then, therefore, if sea levels rise by more than a foot, over just the coming 40 years (as they are predicted to do), the zone of damage, in the Nile delta, will not merely be a narrow strip of land, adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea. Instead, the salt water will push inland, into and across the wide, flat, low-elevation land that was created by slowly-settling sediment. The entire delta – and, the entire city of Cairo, even though it is not normally considered a "coastal community" by most people – is going to be in severe jeopardy.
In addition, and equally important, ALL of the agricultural area that appears in green, in the photograph above, is likely to be flooded – recurringly, for a while, and then parts of it will be continuously flooded, after that – by salt water. And, salt water is very, VERY bad – `deadly' probably would be a better word – for the types of "crop plants" that must devote large amounts of energy, nutrients, and metabolites, in growing what is – for humans – the `food' part of the plant. Some types of weeds can grow reasonably well, in salty or `brackish' water (i.e., water with lower levels of salt than sea water); however, "crop plants" cannot, since they already are being pushed, pressured, and stressed – hard – to spend so much of their resources, growing their `food' parts. So, the amount of crop plants, and food, which the Nile delta will be able to support and grow – which keeps literally millions of people alive, in cities like Cairo (and, in nearly every OTHER large city which is on or near a major river delta, anywhere in the world) – is going to be severely damaged, if not outright destroyed, just within the next few decades.
The people living, not just next to the coasts, but in any and all low-lying areas near coastlines, will be severely and unavoidably affected, by sea level rise caused by global warming.
And – returning to a `hard fact' as set forth above – there aren’t just a few hundred million of them. Instead, there are THREE BILLION of them. As stated above, nearly 40% of the entire world population lives in "coastal communities."
As a result, HUGE numbers of people will be, quite literally, FORCED out of their homes (and livelihoods) in “coastal communities”, as those homes and communities become – in words that are both blunt and true, and yet, somehow, evasive and euphemistic at the same time – “no longer habitable.”
When that happens, they will have no choice but to TRY to somehow move themselves, and their children and families, “inland”.
And, as that happens, the following “predictions” will be seen, not as predictions, but as inevitable and unavoidable results, as surely as the prediction that if something heavy is thrown up into the air, it will fall back down to earth, on that very same day! The direct results of the disasters and catastrophes that will begin happening, when sea levels begin rising at the accelerated rates that this planet is heading toward, seem likely (read: unavoidably, and inevitably) to include each and all of the following:
(a) The people being forced to leave “coastal communities” will be severely and even desperately hungry – if not during the first few days after they have left their homes, then, most certainly, within a few days after that;
(b) Nearly all of them will be broke, with no savings whatever, since whatever they owned, while living on the coast, has been destroyed; and,
(c) They will be very, VERY angry, and embittered, at losing their homes. Indeed, most of them will be quite convinced, in advance, that no matter where they might try to settle, they will be met with deadly resistance and violence; and, therefore, the only way to have even a chance to survive, in some hostile “inland” area, is by meeting (or, better yet, by anticipating) such violence, with violence of their own.
Okay, then. Desperately hungry; forced out of their homes; broke; angry; and, ready to commit violence, and even to kill, when necessary. It’s difficult to think of a more effective combination, if the goal is to start not just one war, but dozens of wars, all at the same time.
The Navy prefers to describe global warming and sea-level rise as a “catalyst for conflict”, and it’s not hard to figure out why they would choose the word ‘catalyst’. Very few Congressmen know what a catalyst actually is, but nearly all of them have some type of vague recollection of having heard the word (usually from a high school or freshman chemistry course, decades earlier), and they are vaguely aware that a `catalyst' can speed things up; so, they can nod their heads (and even mumble agreement, when appropriate) in ways that can make them appear knowing, and agreeable, when they hear a phrase like “catalyst for conflict”.
But, in reality, one of the requirements for something to actually be a “catalyst” is that it cannot be consumed, or altered, by the chemical reaction which it catalyzes. And, it is hard to imagine anything not being “consumed”, when desperately hungry, broke, and angry people are forced out of their homes along a coastline, and are forced to march inward, and are forced to begin fighting and killing people who will – vigorously, and emphatically – not want to share anything with the . . . not just waves, but tsunamis . . . of refugees fleeing coasts that are “no longer habitable”.
That situation will not be “a catalyst for conflict”; it will be a “recipe for disaster”. It would be more accurate and realistic to describe it as, “a runaway train with three billion passengers on it, hurtling at high speed, toward a cliff”, than to pretend – with politeness, diplomacy, and restraint – that, “well, yes, some of those types of conflicts might be catalyzed, and speeded up a bit, by those types of conditions.”
So . . . since the U.S. Navy knows what is happening, and can predict (with pretty good accuracy) what is going to happen next . . . taxpayers and voters need to begin asking, and insisting – and even demanding, if necessary – that the Navy should move past and beyond its historical desire to not confront and not antagonize any Congressmen. If its officers and enlisted men truly want to serve America, defend democracy, and preserve our Constitutional form of government, they need to “tack” (a sailing term), and change course, and begin telling Congress – immediately, and in clear and even blunt and harsh terms – the painful and even horrible truth about what they expect to happen, as sea levels continue to rise (except, at even FASTER rates), in the ways that the Navy knows – perfectly well – are already happening.
This marks the end of the “CRUCIAL GLOBAL WARMING FACTS” (eight, in all). Obviously, limiting the number to only eight meant that several other major threatening facts had to be left off of that list. The next page contains brief overviews of several of those "other candidates".
